Robinhood CEO Says We’re at Cusp of a ‘Prediction Market Supercycle’

Prediction markets are scorching — and about to get even hotter, says Robinhood’s CEO.

On Tuesday’s earnings name, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev referred to as prediction markets the fastest-growing enterprise within the fintech firm’s historical past.

“We’re simply originally of a prediction market supercycle that might drive trillions in annual quantity over time,” he mentioned. “This yr goes to be an enormous yr. Olympics are happening proper now, World Cup coming in the summertime.”

Supercycles seek advice from sustained, long-term intervals of growth spurred by excessive demand for a product. Firms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and, not too long ago, Robinhood let customers guess on the outcomes of occasions akin to elections, sports activities matches, and popular culture occasions. The trade has seen an exponential surge in curiosity prior to now yr.

In August, Robinhood launched its prediction markets providing, which lets customers commerce on the result of in style NFL and school soccer video games. It has since expanded into bets on classes just like the Oscars and elections.

“You are additionally seeing related non-sports contracts producing important quantity,” he mentioned. “For instance, within the week after the NFL season ended, the federal government shut down contract on our prediction markets platform was driving important quantity.”

Prediction markets are a small however shortly rising slice of Robinhood’s general income. Tuesday’s monetary outcomes confirmed that “different” income, which incorporates prediction markets, rose from $72 million to $147 million between the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2025.

Occasion buying and selling volumes are rising steadily, too: The corporate acquired 3.4 billion occasion contracts in January, in comparison with 2.9 billion in December, 3 billion in November, and a pair of.5 billion in October.

General, Robinhood’s fourth-quarter earnings missed Wall Road expectations. Income rose 27% yr over yr within the quarter to $1.3 billion. Internet revenue fell to $605 million, from $916 million in the identical quarter in 2024.

Shares of the investing platform fell over 7% in after-hours buying and selling on Tuesday. It is down 24% thus far this yr due to worries of a decline in crypto income and competitors from extra established brokerages.